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In November, Car Sales Show Signs of Stability

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2009-1202

New-vehicle sales figures being released Tuesday for November show that the auto industry’s recovery is gaining momentum, albeit slowly.

 

General Motors, Ford Motor, Toyota and Honda said their sales were about the same last month as they were a year ago. It was the second consecutive month that sales for most of the big companies were roughly flat.

 

The only major carmaker to report a large drop was Chrysler, whose sales fell 25 percent. Hyundai, in contrast, reported a 46 percent increase.

 

Vehicles were selling at a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of about 11 million in November, according to estimates from G.M. and Chrysler. That is slightly higher than October’s rate of about 10.5 million and much higher than the historically low rate of about 9 million seen in the early part of 2009.

 

“The market is slowly steadying itself and gaining strength,” G.M.’s chief sales analyst, Michael C. DiGiovanni, said on a conference call with analysts and reporters. “We’re encouraged.”

 

In response to rising demand, G.M. said it would build 75 percent more vehicles in the first quarter than it did a year earlier, and Ford said it would raise first-quarter production by 58 percent. Both companies had been drastically cutting production since the middle of last year.

 

November’s selling rate was the third highest of the year, behind July and August when sales increased as a result of the government’s cash-for-clunkers program. The program gave a credit of up to $4,500 to about 700,000 new-vehicle buyers who turned in a less fuel-efficient car or truck.

 

Sales were flat in October, so two consecutive months in which sales were largely unchanged is a positive sign for an industry suffering its steepest one-year slump since the 1970s.

 

“The good news is this is being accomplished now without the cash for clunkers or any industry stimulus,” Mr. DiGiovanni told reporters recently. “The economy is clearly getting better, and the industry’s getting better.”

 

For all of 2009, industry sales were down 25 percent through October.

 

November was the worst month of 2008 for most automakers, making this year’s numbers look better. A year ago, many would-be buyers were unable to get financing, and the Detroit automakers were making their first pleas to Congress for billions of dollars in emergency aid to help them stay in business.

 

Today, many automakers are increasing production as a result of rising sales and low inventories. But they are moving cautiously because of uncertainty about how quickly the economy will rebound next year.

 

“We can see now that a modest economic recovery is under way,” Emily Kolinski Morris, Ford’s senior United States economist, said on a conference call Tuesday. “It won’t begin to feel like a recovery until the labor market has begun to improve materially.”

 

But there are “no signs of backtracking,” she said, “which is a welcome development.”

 

The one carmaker that so far has been missing out on the industry’s recovery is Chrysler, which exited bankruptcy protection in June. Chrysler’s sales are down 38 percent this year through November, and it has continued to report double-digit percentage declines in recent months even as its competitors began to show signs of strength.

 

Meanwhile, Ford, which separated itself from its crosstown rivals by not filing for bankruptcy protection or taking government loans, is on pace to increase its share of the United States market this year. Ford’s market share has fallen every year since 1995. Through October, Ford’s share was 15.2 percent, up from 14.3 percent in the first 10 months of 2008.

 

Ford’s sales in November were down 0.2 percent. G.M.’s sales were down 2 percent. Toyota’s were up 3 percent. Honda’s were down 3 percent. The November numbers were not adjusted for two fewer selling days this year than last.

 

Hyundai led the industry’s gains last month, as it has through most of 2009 by appealing to consumers who wanted lower-priced but reliable alternatives to some more popular vehicles. A report released Tuesday by the Environmental Protection Agency gave Hyundai another liftt by showing that it had topped Honda to sell the nation’s most fuel-efficient vehicle lineup.

 

At G.M., the four brands being sold or shut down — Hummer, Pontiac, Saab and Saturn — accounted for just 8 percent of sales in November. Sales at those brands were down 48 percent from a year ago, while sales of Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet and GMC vehicles were up 6 percent.

 

G.M. built its last Pontiac, a G6 sedan, at a plant in Orion Township, Mich., last week. Susan Docherty, G.M.’s vice president for United States sales, said Tuesday that the company expected to run out of inventory for Pontiac and Saturn within about three months.

 

“They’re going quickly,” Ms. Docherty said. “The wind down of both of these brands is progressing very nicely and it’s actually exceeding our expectations in terms of the sales progress.”

 

G.M. has a pending deal to sell Hummer to a Chinese manufacturer. A Swedish luxury sports-car maker, the Koenigsegg Group, last week backed out of a deal to buy Saab.

 

G.M.’s directors said Tuesday in a statement that they had received some inquiries about Saab since the Koenigsegg deal had fallen through and would evaluate potential bids between now and the end of December.

Source: The New York Times
In November, Car Sales Show Signs of Stability
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